Predictions! UFC Vegas 88, X-Factor

This weekend (Sat., March 16, 2024), Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) returns home to UFC Apex in Las Vegas, Nevada, for UFC Vegas 88. This event blatantly disregards my recent NO MORE BAD HEAVYWEIGHT MAIN EVENTS plea, and the bout list also serves as a great response to this tweet from UFC matchmaker, Mick Maynard.

This one!

Whatever, c’est la vie. It’s an uninspired Apex card with a few names who are fun. Everyone should know what to expect here. On the plus side, my X-Factor predictions are running on a hot streak, so maybe one of you dedicated readers has turned mediocre “Fight Nights” into a nice little profit? I’d like think so.

Enough preamble, let’s dig into all the main card fights leading up to the main event:

Welterweight: Bryan Battle vs. Ange Loosa

Best Win for Battle? Takashi Sato For Loosa? John Howard
Current Streak: Both men have won two in a row
X-Factor: Both seem to be improving quickly fight-to-fight
How these two match up: Welterweight prospects will throw down.

Battle has consistently exceeded expectations in his UFC career. Nobody expected him to win The Ultimate Fighter (TUF), and I don’t think many believed he would start his UFC career by winning five of six with four finishes. His kickboxing has grown considerably, complimenting his jiu-jitsu nicely. Loosa has proven himself a well-rounded talent as well. He’s a quality kickboxer who can work at a great rate, and his wrestling has carried from the regional to UFC level quite well.

I expect a competitive fight here. On the feet, Loosa is the more consistent striker, more likely to win the volume game. At the same time, he’s a bit more hittable, and Battle seems to have that opportunistic ability to land significant shots suddenly that change the fight.

The bigger question to me is the wrestling. Battle was soundly grounded by Rinat Fakhretdinov, who admittedly is really good and more physical than Loosa. At the same time, continuous takedowns could be a path to victory for “The Last Ninja.”

It doesn’t sound easy, however. Battle is a big Welterweight with crafty grappling and range strikes; staying safe for three rounds of grinding sounds like a tall ask. At some point on the floor or the feet, Battle should find his opportunities to turn the tide back into his favor.

Prediction: Battle via decision

Light Heavyweight: Ovince Saint Preux vs. Kennedy Nzechukwu

Best Win for Saint Preux? Mauricio Rua For Nzechukwu? Ion Cutelaba
Current Streak: Both men lost their last bout
X-Factor: Saint Preux is 40
How these two match up: I’m cautiously optimistic this will end violently rather than being a prolonged snooze.

Saint Preux is a veteran’s veteran, a man who fought for the interim title EIGHT years ago. “OSP” has never been the most consistent fighter, however. He’s got an odd game filled with funky submissions and unusual — but very powerful — strike setups. Sometimes, he wins big, and other times, his lack of process really hurts him.

Nzechukwu is a bit confusing. He put together a solid three-fight win streak by relying durability, power, and volume to overwhelm fatigued opposition, but his chin suddenly failed him against Dustin Jacoby last time out. Still, he generally seems to be on the right path to becoming a ranked fighter.

I’ve never been a huge believer in Saint Preux. His fundamental game is just so … lacking. He wins fights by being a big Light Heavyweight with incredible natural athleticism, but at his age, the latter gifts are fading. He’s not as fast nor as powerful … though I still wouldn’t recommend letting him land too many punches.

Nzechukwu is nearly a decade young, plenty strong and tough himself. “OSP” could make things interesting by wrestling and trying to make use of his genuinely excellent submission game, but that feels unlikely and tiring. The better odds have these two trading power shots until someone falls.

Prediction: Nzechukwu via knockout

Women’s Bantamweight: Pannie Kianzad vs. Macy Chiasson

Best Win for Kianzad? Alexis Davis For Chiasson? Norma Dumont
Current Streak: Both women lost their last bout
X-Factor: Will Chiasson make weight?
How these two match up: Scrappy not-quite-title-contenders will duke it out.

Kianzad is a slugger. She likes to march into the pocket and throw punches-in-bunches, working at a solid rate with shots that can hurt her opposition. Chiasson is a bit more of a kicks and clinch striker. She’s a large athlete for 135-pounds — which is why the weight cut is such a question — and she uses those physical gifts to blast long range strikes and/or manhandle her foes in close quarters.

I’m a bit torn here. On one hand, I don’t at all think Chiasson can reliably make weight, and cutting too much before fighting a high-volume foe is a recipe for disaster. Plus, Kianzad is simply better in the pocket anyway.

On the other, Chiasson was actually beating Irene Aldana prior to that funky upkick-to-the-body knockout. Her wrestling is looking better, and Kianzad is historically vulnerable to that style. Add in Chiasson’s size advantage, and a grinding wrestling match seems like it would work smoothly for her.

Takedowns win the day.

Prediction: Chiasson via decision

Middleweight: Gerald Meerschaert vs. Bryan Barberena

Best Win for Meerschaert? Makhmud Muradov For Barberena? Robbie Lawler
Current Streak: “GM3” has lost two straight, whereas Barberena is 0-3 in his last three
X-Factor: Meerschaert has been in a lot of wars lately
How these two match up: Both men are veterans who can fight wherever, but it’s still a clear grappler vs. striker match up.

Meerschaert has been around the block, and we know what he brings to the table. The Southpaw has a nasty left kick and solid left hand, but he does his best work on the canvas, particularly when able to gain top position. He’s won 27 — TWENTY SEVEN — fights via tapout, and that will surely be his game plan here.

Barberena, meanwhile, fits the classic mold of “technical brawler.” He knows how to score well and keep himself (reasonably) safe in the chaos, and he subsequently comes out on top in wars of attrition more often than not.

Here’s the problem with this fight: I don’t think Bryan Barberena cares much anymore. I’m sure he’ll still try his best in the cage, but there is absolutely zero reason Barberena should be at Middleweight. He wasn’t that huge or that shredded at 170 pounds! At Middleweight, he’s significantly smaller than his opposition, and that obviously isn’t going to help with his historically okay takedown defense.

Submission No. 28, coming right up.

Prediction: Meerschaert via submission

Featherweight: Christian Rodriguez vs. Isaac Dulgarian

Best Win for Rodriguez? Raul Rosas Jr For Dulgarian? Francis Marshall
Current Streak: Rodriguez has won three straight, while Dulgarian is undefeated at 6-0 (one win in the UFC)
X-Factor: Rodriguez is being forcibly relocated to Featherweight
How these two match up: “CeeRod” is going to test another undefeated prospect.

Despite being just 26 himself, Rodriguez is building a reputation for handing hyped prospects their first professional defeat. For his age, he’s a very composed and technical fighter, able to strike very fluidly and wrestle at a high level. Unfortunately, he’s also developed a reputation for missing weight, forcing this Featherweight move.

Dulgarian, meanwhile, has yet to be really tested inside the cage. He’s finished all his opponents in the first round, bowling them over with a mix of power, physicality, and wrestling dominance. Given that his opponent was recently a Bantamweight, that sounds like a viable strategy.

Still, there are way too many unknowns about Dulgarian. We have no idea what he looks like in anything resembling a technical striking match or even a second round. He’s been too dominant, and except for Marshall, the competition level has been fairly low. It’s a great sign that he blew through so many opponents, but that type of streak doesn’t last forever.

More to the point, Rodriguez has proven himself capable of weathering an early storm then capitalizing as his foe slows down to more human levels. His weight misses are costing him here, because otherwise, his current win streak would have earned him greater than a UFC sophomore.

Rodriguez coughs up the first before coming on strong in rounds two and three.

Prediction: Rodriguez via decision

LIVE! Stream UFC Vegas 88 On ESPN+

HEAVYWEIGHT HOEDOWN! Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) returns to its APEX venue in Las Vegas, Nevada, on Sat., March 16, 2024, with a titanic tilt between Australian power puncher and master of the Shoey, Tai Tuivasa (14-6), and longtime 265-pound keeper of gates, Marcin Tybura (24-8), across five rounds of heavyweight action. In UFC Vegas 88’s ESPN+-streamed co-main event, Tar Heel “Butcher” Bryan Battle (10-2) looks to win his third straight at the expense of Congo “Ninja” Ange Loosa (10-3) in a high-stakes Welterweight scrap.

Don’t miss a single second of face-punching action!

Remember that MMAmania.com will deliver LIVE round-by-round, blow-by-blow coverage of the entire UFC Vegas 88 fight card right here, starting with the ESPN+ “Prelims” matches, which are scheduled to begin at 4 p.m. ET, then the remaining main card balance (also on ESPN+) at 7 p.m. ET.

To check out the latest and greatest UFC Vegas 88: “Tuivasa vs. Tybura” news and notes be sure to hit up our comprehensive event archive right here.