England can take a giant step towards World Cup qualification by beating Latvia in Riga on Tuesday night.
A victory would move the Three Lions on to 18 points from six games — a total which would see them qualify with four games to spare if Serbia failed to beat both Albania and Andorra this month.
England — who are said to have a 12.5% probability of winning next summer’s World Cup — will travel to Riga as huge favourites to beat Latvia, who are 137th in the FIFA Men’s World Rankings.
Thomas Tuchel’s men are as short as 1/40 with some bookmakers but can also be found at 1/16 if you shop around.
Meanwhile, the best available price on a Latvia win is 50/1, while the draw can be backed at 14/1.
Latvia vs England match odds
- Latvia 50/1
- Draw 14/1
- England 1/16
Latvia vs England betting tips
With England so heavily odds-on, much of the attention will be on the handicap markets.
England won the reverse fixture 3-0 at Wembley — a result that was a fair reflection of the action based on the xG scores of 3.44 and 0.29.
If you fancy England to win by three or more goals again, you can get 4/6 on England -2, while England -3 can be backed at 6/4.
We reckon England -2 could be worth a pop, but would be reluctant to go any higher in the handicap betting. Latvia have only lost by three or more goals in five of their last 21 matches (3-0 vs England, 3-0 vs North Macedonia, 4-1 vs Armenia, 4-0 vs Turkey and 5-0 vs Croatia).
However, those numbers don’t reflect that many of Latvia’s opponents are a lot weaker than Tuchel’s England. They faced the Faroe Islands and Lithuania in last year’s Baltic Cup and were in Tier C in the most recent edition of the Nations League, before being relegated.
England to win to nil at 4/9 also looks solid when you consider they have kept seven clean sheets in eight games, while Latvia have drawn blanks in 11 of their last 21 matches.
In other betting markets, Harry Kane is the 11/4 favourite to score first, while he is 8/13 to score any time and 3/1 to score two or more goals. If he starts — he is expected to, despite missing Thursday’s 3-0 win over Wales with a knock — then all of those options look tempting.
Kane — who ranked 13th in the 2025 Ballon d’Or vote — had five shots when England beat Latvia 3-0 at Wembley in March and has been in stunning form this season, scoring 18 goals in 10 games for Bayern Munich.
England captain Harry Kane is expected to start against Latvia in Riga on Tuesday
FootballBlog.co.uk’s best betting tips for Latvia vs England:
- England to win by three or more goals: 4/6
- Harry Kane to score two or more goals 3/1
- England to win to nil: 4/9
Latvia vs England correct score prediction
Based on the betting odds in the correct score market, bookies reckon the most likely result is 3-0 to England, which is priced at 23/5. Meanwhile, 2-0 to England is 5/1, while 4-0 is 11/2.
A 1-0 win for Latvia can be backed at 90/1, while all other correct scores that result in home wins are at least 150/1.
We agree with the bookies that 3-0 to England is the most likely result. That is our prediction.
FootballBlog.co.uk’s correct score prediction for Latvia vs England: 0-3 (23/5)
Latvia vs England head-to-head record
England and Latvia have only previously met once. March’s 3-0 win for England at Wembley was their first ever game against each other.
Latvia are currently 133 places below England in the FIFA Men’s World Rankings and have only qualified for one major tournament as an independent nation. That was Euro 2004 where they exited in the group stage after losing to the Czech Republic and the Netherlands, although they did hold Germany to a 0-0 draw in Portugal.
By comparison, England have featured at 27 major international tournaments, winning the World Cup in 1966 and reaching the final of the last two European Championships.
Latvia vs England team news
Kane sat out the win over Wales but is expected to return in Riga. The England captain missed Thursday’s game with a minor knock, yet all indications suggest he will be available to start up front.
Bukayo Saka scored England’s third goal against Wales, a strike that saw him move clear as Arsenal’s highest-scoring England international of all time. He should keep his place in the starting XI.
For Latvia, in-form forward Marko Regza is likely to lead the line again. He has scored four goals in his last six club appearances and is viewed as the hosts’ main attacking threat.
Janis Ikaunieks remains a key member of the squad, even though he has not scored for Latvia in almost two years. He is joint-eighth on the nation’s all-time international scoring list with 12 goals.
Latvia vs England predicted starting XIs
Latvia (5-4-1): Zviedris; Ciganiks, Balodis, Cernomordijs, Melniks, Jurkovskis; Daskevics, Vapne, Zelenkovs, Varslavans; Sits.
England (4-2-3-1): Pickford; Konsa, Guehi, Stones, Lewis-Skelly; Rice, Anderson; Saka, Eze, Rogers; Kane.
