The 2026 World Cup draw is set to take place on 5th December, as 48 teams learn their fate for the group stage.
While England and Scotland are guaranteed to be heading to North America next summer, Northern Ireland or Wales will know who they will be facing if they manage to progress through the playoffs in March.
We look at the most likely groups for the home nations ahead of the draw in Washington.
What Are the Rules For the World Cup Draw?
Each nation is divided into one of four pots, with every group made up of one representative per pot.
Full Draw and Pots |
|||
|---|---|---|---|
| Pot 1 | Pot 2 | Pot 3 | Pot 4 |
| USA (host) | Croatia | Norway | Jordan |
| Mexico (host) | Morocco | Panama | Cape Verde |
| Canada (host) | Colombia | Egypt | Ghana |
| Spain | Uruguay | Algeria | Curacao |
| Argentina | Switzerland | Scotland | Haiti |
| France | Japan | Paraguay | New Zealand |
| England | Senegal | Ivory Coast | UEFA play-off winner |
| Portugal | Iran | Tunisia | UEFA play-off winner |
| Brazil | South Korea | Uzbekistan | UEFA play-off winner |
| Netherlands | Ecuador | Qatar | UEFA play-off winner |
| Belgium | Austria | Saudi Arabia | Inter-confederation play-off winner |
| Germany | Australia | South Africa | Inter-confederation play-off winner |
FIFA aims to not have multiple teams from the same confederation, but because UEFA will have 16 representatives in a 12-group format, four groups will have multiple European nations in them.
However, the rest of the confederations are not allowed to have multiple members in a group.
Who Are England’s Most Likely World Cup Opponents?
England are very likely to get a South American side in pot two. Colombia, Uruguay, and Ecuador each have an 11% chance, equalling to around a one in three chance a COMNEBOL nation will be drawn from pot two.
As for pot three, the nation with the highest likelihood are Panama, who play in the CONCACAF confederation. England shared a group with them in 2018 and they have a 10% likelihood that it will happen eight years later.
Paraguay (11%) have a higher chance of being drawn, but because there is such a high chance that a COMNEBOL nation is drawn in pot two, Panama are the most likely opponents.
And if that happens, don’t be surprised if the Three Lions are drawn against one of Ghana, Cape Verde, or Jordan in pot four. Each of them has a 10% chance, while New Zealand can’t be counted out with a 9% chance.
There are nations with higher percentages in pot four, but because Curacao and Haiti (both 12%) are in the same confederation as Panama, they would not be drawn in that group.
While each of the Inter-confederation play-off winners (12% and 15%) have Jamaica (CONCACAF) in one, and Bolivia (COMNEBOL) in the other, so they will not be drawn.
What is Scotland’s Most Likely World Cup Group?
Scotland have a 13% chance of getting Germany from pot one, which would see the two sides meet again after opening Euro 2024.
In pot two, Steve Clarke’s side has a strong possibility of being joined by an African side. Senegal and 4th place finishers in Qatar, Morocco each have a 15% chance of being drawn with the Tartan Army, a far cry from the “dream draw” Scotland fans were hoping for.
And if all that goes as predicted, they will likely face the winners of the inter-confederation play-off between Iraq, Bolivia, and Suriname. There is a 15% chance of that happening.
Cape Verde and Ghana both 14% also have a 14% chance of being drawn out of pot four, but with them being in the same confederation as the likely pot two representatives, it won’t be possible for them to be in.
Wales and Northern Ireland’s Potential World Cup Opponents
Though Wales and Northern Ireland will find out if they are off to North America in March, they will find out on the 5th December who they will play, should one of them manage to qualify.
Northern Ireland head to Italy for their semi-final match, while Wales will host Bosnia-Herzegovina.
In the event that both of them win their semi-final fixtures, there would be an all-home nation decider for a place at the tournament.
In pot one, there is a strong likelihood that they will be paired with one of the host nations. There is a 20% chance that they will be drawn with Canada and Mexico and a 19% chance they will be drawn with the United States.
In pot two, they will likely be matched with someone in the AFC confederation. Japan, Iran, South Korea, and Australia all have a 12% chance of being drawn.
And in pot three, there is a strong likelihood that they will be matched up with a nation in the CAF confederation. Egypt, Algeria, Ivory Coast, Tunisia, and South Africa all have an 11% chance of being matched up with the winners from that particular play-off tournament.
