Predictions! UFC Vegas 86, X-Factor

This weekend (Sat., Feb. 10, 2024), Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) remains inside UFC Apex (alas) in Las Vegas, Nevada, for UFC Vegas 86. This upcoming card is identical in nature to last week’s event, which was … bad! It’s the usual suspects: a mediocre main event (why more Middleweights?!?), an intriguing and fun co-main, and then a whole bunch of names who haven’t yet earned the recognition of a Wikipedia page.

On the plus side, there are at least a handful of well-liked veterans snuck through the card. Let’s dig into all the main card fights leading up to the main- and co-main events:

Middleweight: Robert Bryczek vs. Ihor Potieria

Best Win for Bryczek? Samuel Kristofic For Potieria? Mauricio Rua
Current Streak: Bryczek debuts having won his five fights, while Potieria has lost two straight
X-Factor: Potieria is stepping up on very short notice AND making his Middleweight debut
How these two match up: One way or another, it probably won’t last long.

Bryczek has a bit of hype behind him. The Polish veteran has a good deal of experience and did not sign through Contenders Series, making him a rarity in this day and age. More importantly, he’s an aggressive combination puncher with good power in his shots, as well as a jiu-jitsu black belt to back him up.

Potieria is chaos in the cage. He’s all about his offensive and can definitely deal damage, having stopped 16 opponents via strikes or submission. Unfortunately, his wildness puts him in the fire too, and he’s been stopped in four of his defeats.

I like the 185-pound move for Potieria, who looked like the smaller man by a significant margin. I cannot say I like it as much with one week of preparation, however, and particularly not against a smart and experienced fighter. Bryczek will find the opportunity in his opponents attacks to land heavy counters or even takedowns, and it likely won’t take long for the punishment to add up.

After a couple delays, the Polish fighter makes a successful debut.

Prediction: Bryczek via knockout

Middleweight: Brad Tavares vs. Gregory Rodrigues

Best Win for Tavares? Thales Leites For Rodrigues? Chidi Njokuani
Current Streak: Both men won their last bout
X-Factor: Can Tavares’ chin hold up to Rodrigues’ power?
How these two match up: This feels like a kickboxing battle.

Tavares is now a 14-year UFC veteran, a long-time Middleweight stalwart who presents some interesting challenges. The Hawaiian has some of the division’s best takedown defense, and he pairs that asset with a nasty calf kicking game that can quickly debilitate his opposition.

Rodrigues has proved himself one of the most exciting fighters in the sport in the last few years. “Robocop” has serious power in his hands and is always down for a brawl, but he also showed off his ground skills last time out, effortlessly mounting and finishing his opponent inside a round.

This is a tough one.

Tavares is probably the cleaner striker on paper, but he’s considerably less durable, and I haven’t see Rodrigues fail to get to his opponent at some point. The Brazilian’s jiu-jitsu edge is a wash, however, because taking down Tavares is fairly impossible.

The question is whether or not Tavares can break down the lead leg before Rodrigues starts to connect. I’m expecting some early success from Tavares, but that tide will turn when Rodrigues toughs it out and starts connecting anyway.

Prediction: Rodrigues via decision

Lightweight: Michael Johnson vs. Darrius Flowers

Best Win for Johnson? Dustin Poirier For Flowers? Amiran Gogoladze
Current Streak: Both men lost their last bout
X-Factor: Flowers is cutting to Lightweight for the first time
How these two match up: This one should be fun for however long it lasts.

“The Menace” is the most famously unpredictable fighter in mixed martial arts (MMA). This is a man who defeated Tony Ferguson and Dustin Poirier in the midst of excellent runs, but he also got submitted by a straight footlock by Thiago Moises. He’s lost a lot of fights suddenly after looking sharp early, and he’s also flattened many excellent fighters.

Even this deep in his career, Johnson is seriously quick and has major power.

Flowers is a relative newcomer, a 5’9” powerhouse who has fought as high as 185 pounds. He likes to close distance (obviously) and fire big hooks in combinations. He’s also fairly tricky to take down, though I doubt that skill comes into play here.

There are three paths this fight can likely go. On one hand, Johnson is the sharper range technician and knows how to punish his opponent’s offense violently. He knocked out Poirier on the counter, after all. At the same time, Johnson is coming off a brutal knockout loss at 37 years of age, so a younger and hungry up-and-comer just sparking him is distinctly possible.

Finally, the third, MJ-specific option: Johnson picks apart his foe for a round or two then gets slept.

Despite two of the three options going against him, I still like Johnson here. His speed, timing and power remain in spades, and Flowers gives his opponents a lot to work with during his blitzes forward. Flowers is going to charge at Johnson, and I expect the veteran times his entrances with a nasty left hand at some point.

Prediction: Johnson via knockout

Middleweight: Rodolfo Vieira vs. Armen Petrosyan

Best Win for Vieira? Cody Brundage For Petrosyan? Gregory Rodrigues
Current Streak: Vieira rebounded last time out, while Petrosyan has won two in a row
X-Factor: Both are still fairly inexperienced in MMA
How these two match up: This is yet another Middleweight fight, but it’s also a fun style clash that feels likely to produce a finish.

Vieira got stomped by Anthony Hernandez in 2021’s “Upset of the Year,” but he took the right lessons away. Since then, he’s shown improved stand up and conditioning, though his ability to set up shots still leaves something to be desired. Fortunately, if he does get his man down, Vieira might be the best grappler on the roster.

As for Petrosyan, he’s very obviously a great kickboxer. He moves well, hits hard, and can strike from all distances. His takedown defense failed him badly against Caio Borralho in his sole UFC loss, however, and most other opponents who have tried to drag him down have succeeded.

This is always going to be one of those fights where the prediction is going to make you look like a genius or moron. If Vieira drags his foe to the floor, he pummels and strangles him in short fashion. If not, Petrosyan picks him apart and likely scores the knockout. It all hinges on the takedown!

I’m going to guess Vieira gets it. His blast double is no joke, and his overall physicality seems like it’ll be a problem for Petrosyan. “Superman” has historically done well to scramble to his feet, but that’s a tall task opposite “The Black Belt Hunter.”

MMAmania.com will deliver LIVE round-by-round, blow-by-blow coverage of the entire UFC Vegas 86 fight card right here, starting with the ESPN+ “Prelims” matches, which are scheduled to begin at 4 p.m. ET, then the remaining main card balance (also on ESPN+) at 7 p.m. ET.

To check out the latest and greatest UFC Vegas 86: “Pyfer vs. Hermansson” news and notes be sure to hit up our comprehensive event archive right here.